How to use the Sage Options Contracts Predictions
Only predictions with 75%+ precision & averaging 70%+ probability make it
These predictions are for single Call and Put Options
Start with the ML Model Precision
The Precision tells you how often the model gets "it" right.
Now use the probabilities
The higher the probability, the more likely the option contract (call or put) is to at least break-even for that day.
Decide which Options Call or Put contracts to buy
The more contracts selected (diversified), the higher your odds of being successful (and vice versa). Having a few positions only increases the odds of the those instances being the ones where the model got "it" wrong.
Orders should be placed at market opening on Monday
The more time since the opening of the markets, the higher the contract prices.
Equal number of contracts keep the odds balanced
Example: buying 3 contracts of CHPT, and 1 of WFC, and 2 of JPM, etc. will throw off the models' odds. The odds of being successful will no longer be balanced.
Holding positions until Wed or Thu of the week in play
By mid-week, one can see how the predictions are performing and make a decision on whether to hold or sell.
We don't hold past one week because the models have data only through the last Friday (we are working on providing daily predictions).